On Lockdown

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ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

Really bummed...they just canceled the 13-Jun Electronic Swap. Santa Clara County is slowly coming out of lockdown but they are still not allowing a large gathering like the Swap. March...April...May...and now June. Really bummed.

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

Miljenko wrote:...
Other projects you might be interested more is no less than 5 different macro lights using ring COB leds. I believe I'll find a time to present those in PM forum!
Take care guys and stay at home.
Best,
Miljenko
Hope all is well after the earthquake. Would be good to hear about your situation there. Am also intrigued by the COB projects and would like to hear more. As I mentioned before I have also used them for a couple projects, and plan to share those here eventually.

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

I just received some lenses from candhsurplus, and they sent a note with the shipment showing their B&M store in SoCal, but when I checked out their website it said they had to close the store after 67 years in business. I dearly love surplus stores, and they were already suffering before the shutdown. HSC closed their Santa Rosa store, then moved their Santa Clara store to a cheaper location, then finally went OOB / merged with Excess Solutions in San Jose. I hope Excess Solutions is going to come back after the shutdown as they are the last surplus store in the area. There used to be so many around here, maybe a dozen. I guess that's what happens when the business models all go toward software and away from hardware, and the manufacturing all goes offshore.

Probably the most shocking thing was to go shopping for some wire and other stuff at Fry's just before Christmas, and finding the parking lot nearly empty. The store shelves were <50% stocked, and I was unable to get the wire I went there for. I can't imagine they are going to re-open after the shutdown, so that will be another major business loss.

enricosavazzi
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Post by enricosavazzi »

Just in, a Nature study on the effects of lockdowns. They do have a large good effect and so far have prevented millions of deaths, but as the study says, we are still just at the beginning of the pandemic.

The strategy of some governments of achieving herd immunity by allowing the virus to spread in a controlled fashion is still months or years away from its goal. Relaxing the lockdowns and restarting the economy in the near future is only wishful thinking, and will probably be very costly in terms of loss of life.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586- ... erence.pdf
--ES

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

enricosavazzi wrote:Just in, a Nature study on the effects of lockdowns. They do have a large good effect and so far have prevented millions of deaths, but as the study says, we are still just at the beginning of the pandemic.

The strategy of some governments of achieving herd immunity by allowing the virus to spread in a controlled fashion is still months or years away from its goal. Relaxing the lockdowns and restarting the economy in the near future is only wishful thinking, and will probably be very costly in terms of loss of life.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586- ... erence.pdf
Yes, I believe the lockdowns have had significant beneficial effects. The air in Silicon Valley, and elsewhere along the West Coast, is significantly better than it was earlier in the year. It had been getting gradually worse as China's economy continued to ramp. I can see the mountains both sides of the Valley clearly for the first time in years! I also hear more birds both during the day and at night. I have more bees in my garden.

Unfortunately, I can't agree with the rest of your post, which is opposite of the reality I've observed and read about. The lockdowns were, and continue to be, a huge mistake IMO.

Pau
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Post by Pau »

ray_parkhurst wrote:Unfortunately, I can't agree with the rest of your post, which is opposite of the reality I've observed and read about. The lockdowns were, and continue to be, a huge mistake IMO.
(bold added)

May be you meant your interpretation o the reality. Of course some data and mainly some numerical conclusions in the linked paper are questionable and/or questioned by other experts but there is quasi unanimity in the scientific community about the lockdown being the main cause of the (incomplete) control of the disease in certain European countries like mine.

I really hate lockdowns because I love freedom like most people do, but now, being our lockdown close to its end I really fear the new epidemic peak in the near future.
Pau

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

Pau wrote:
ray_parkhurst wrote:Unfortunately, I can't agree with the rest of your post, which is opposite of the reality I've observed and read about. The lockdowns were, and continue to be, a huge mistake IMO.
(bold added)

May be you meant your interpretation o the reality. Of course some data and mainly some numerical conclusions in the linked paper are questionable and/or questioned by other experts but there is quasi unanimity in the scientific community about the lockdown being the main cause of the (incomplete) control of the disease in certain European countries like mine.

I really hate lockdowns because I love freedom like most people do, but now, being our lockdown close to its end I really fear the new epidemic peak in the near future.
Here are the points I was referring to in the rest of his post:
The strategy of some governments of achieving herd immunity by allowing the virus to spread in a controlled fashion is still months or years away from its goal.
If we had just kept the schools open, we'd already be there. Let the virus spread in the schools, then the kids bring it home, and voila, herd immunity (at least to the prevalent strain) in no time. Of course, vulnerable folks may be infected, and hospitals overwhelmed, which is why we did the lockdowns in the first place. Looking at this from the other side, it may be impossible to develop herd immunity at all given the many strains of SARS-2.
Relaxing the lockdowns and restarting the economy in the near future is only wishful thinking, and will probably be very costly in terms of loss of life.


All countries have hopefully learned to protect their vulnerable folks. Not opening economies would result in bad things like famines and wars, which will kill quite a few more folks than SARS-2 ever could.

enricosavazzi
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Post by enricosavazzi »

ray_parkhurst wrote:...
If we had just kept the schools open, we'd already be there. Let the virus spread in the schools, then the kids bring it home, and voila, herd immunity (at least to the prevalent strain) in no time.
Sweden did not close its schools. Yet it is estimated that the percentage of population positive for Coronavirus antibodies is only roughly 6% to 12%. It is only an estimate because Sweden is doing no testing except among hospitalized patients and perhaps health care professionals. In Sweden it is simply impossible for a private person to get tested by asking for it.
Relaxing the lockdowns and restarting the economy in the near future is only wishful thinking, and will probably be very costly in terms of loss of life.

A national government can of course try to present a second wave of infection as a necessary evil to keep the economy going, or as an unexpected event, for example by blaming the new infections on foreign visitors. Depending on how well they spin it, they might even succeed.
--ES

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

enricosavazzi wrote: Sweden did not close its schools. Yet it is estimated that the percentage of population positive for Coronavirus antibodies is only roughly 6% to 12%. It is only an estimate because Sweden is doing no testing except among hospitalized patients and perhaps health care professionals. In Sweden it is simply impossible for a private person to get tested by asking for it.


That estimate seems rather low. What was the test protocol? Without much more extensive testing we'll never know for sure how infectious this virus really is, but the studies I've read say the infection rate is far higher than the confirmed cases would suggest. Those confirmed cases are of course folks who had bad enough symptoms to warrant testing. This study, published end of April, found that in Santa Clara County (where I live) the actual number of infections was 54 times that of the confirmed cases:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20062463v2

This ratio may vary a lot around the world.

I'm very worried that folks wanting to wait for herd immunity, vaccines, etc before re-opening economies are going to cause much more damage and death than could ever be done by the virus. SARS-2 is a coronavirus, and has mutated into many strains, so similar to the common cold it is virtually impossible to become immune or to create a vaccine. As of 22-Apr there were at least 30 strains, and there are probably many more now. This virus will be with us for a long time, maybe forever in various mutations over time.

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

It seems my earlier proposal of managing the folks with symptoms is probably the best way to go. Self-quarantine on temperature and coughs. No need for masks or physical distancing, since asymptomatic folks don't effectively transmit the virus. Makes sense:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asympto ... -says.html

Lou Jost
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Post by Lou Jost »

Ray, that is dangerously wrong. Almost half of transmissions are by asymptomatic carriers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/worl ... k-1f302e21

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

Lou Jost wrote:Ray, that is dangerously wrong. Almost half of transmissions are by asymptomatic carriers.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/worl ... k-1f302e21
Hah, you just can't trust the WHO can you? Yesterday it was "very rare", then they walk it back.

edited to add: so, which studies are correct? Is there actually any science being done in any of these studies?

Lou Jost
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Post by Lou Jost »

Yes, there is a fair bit of evidence, accepted by nearly everyone, on this issue. I think the WHO person either misspoke or was misunderstood.

There are also some really fascinating and frightening transmission stories that have been ferreted out by contact tracers. In one case someone caught the virus by sitting in the same seat as an infected person, several hours after the infected person had sat in that same seat.

You shouldn't trust public officials in general...the WHO made a bad mistake early on, when they said masks weren't important for the general public. This was obviously wrong, even just based on what was known then. Anyone following the science knew at once that this was bad advice. I don't know how such an important organization can be so bad, but they aren't the only ones. The formerly widely respected CDC in the US has also done rather poorly lately; it is now run by an idealogue political appointee, which probably doesn't help matters.

ray_parkhurst
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Post by ray_parkhurst »

Lou Jost wrote:Yes, there is a fair bit of evidence, accepted by nearly everyone, on this issue. I think the WHO person either misspoke or was misunderstood.
Lou...you believe the party line far too easily. Are you so sure that the one study everyone is relying on, which could be based on data as good as the data used in the "Lancetgate" HCQ studies, is correct? Or are the later 3 studies that say asymptomatic transmission is very rare, which were done after the first study so would be placed in far higher scrutiny, actually the correct ones? That first study was used to justify the shutdowns, and thus was highly politicized. It's not surprising the later studies were pushed back since they don't support continuing shutdowns, or even social distancing.

Before this latest statement from the WHO, I too was a true believer in asymptomatic transmission, even though it goes against logic, since there was a "scientific study" which "proved" it was true. But what if it is all just nonsense based on bad data, "accepted by nearly everyone"?

Lou Jost
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Post by Lou Jost »

Lou...you believe the party line far too easily.
Ray, I am just looking at the literature. I don't have a party. On the other hand I think you are inclined to give undue weight to claims that support your libertarian positions.

There are many studies, including very recent ones, about the contagiousness of non-symptomatic persons. A nice review is here: https://www.health.com/condition/infect ... oronavirus .

It seems to be the scientific consensus that people who do not show symptoms are important vectors of the disease. There is argument about the exact percentage. But the findings of contact tracing confirm that asymptomatic persons are contagious.

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